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Just look at my competition at BigGuy Sports, in the 2006 - 2007 year there were 41 players and of those only 10 had a winning record. If you click on their links at BigGuy some sites don't even work anymore and others claim some crazy winning record that just doesn't match with BigGuy. Most sites have you jumping through hoops to find a free pick. Can you believe that some of these sites have the balls to ask for money!!!
Before you get stupid and throw away your money read all the information below. If you still insist on throwing away your money let me know........I'll be more than happy to take it. You can pay for my picks :)
Let the Bettor Beware
The various trade publications of the sports betting industry are inundated with advertisements for sports services, organizations willing to sell you betting advice for a price. To my knowledge these publications do not require verification of claims made by advertisers. It seems that the publications in question want only the sports service's money. Most will print whatever you want as long as you pay. Similar claims are made through the mails, to anyone who has answered a sports service ad or subscribed to a sports betting publication.
One of the problems with many sports bettors is they are willing to pay hundreds or thousands of dollars for advice from sports services without checking out the validity of the claims and the quality of the advice they are purchasing. Many of these individuals are astute businessmen who wouldn't think of making a business decision without checking it out first from every conceivable angle. They protect themselves by insuring their homes and valuables, yet they are ready to believe any lies the gimmick-oriented sports service will tell them. (Remember, any and all game info is free, you just need to know where to get it!)
What are some of the more common gimmicks used by the majority of sports services intent on getting the customer's money without necessarily producing winners?
The word lock has been used more than any other to convince the naive sports gambler to give his money to self-proclaimed geniuses. When the sports service uses the word lock, they are stating that the game cannot lose. They have found that if they say it loud enough and print it bold enough, a certain percentage of players will believe them. They have also found that the more money they ask for their lock, the easier it is to sell.
The lock concept preys upon the bettor who has been losing and wants to recoup quickly. This kind of player is looking for the miracle that will bail him out. In this quest for a miracle, the bettor loses sight of reality. Always keep in mind that a play is a play. It can lose or win. The "expert" with the lock is implying that he knows more than the lines maker, the bookies, the wise guys, the players and the officials. Almost anything can happen in a football game and a turnover or bad punt can totally alter the course of a game. This simple fact happens all the time. How many times have the games you bet on get decided in the last 2 minutes of the game?
Never forget that a lock is an even-money bet, minus the juice. It should be treated no different than any other play on a justifiable rating system. If the play is so good, why is the service selling it to you? For the price of a plane ticket, the seller could come to Las Vegas and clean up. The fact that none of these "locksmiths" ever do this should be cause for caution.
Imagine a sports service that is not monitored by any reputable monitoring service. Let's suppose also that the sports service claims it wins 70% of its selections. With this hype to substantiate its offer, the service offers a 10-star lock for a game next weekend and the cost to you is $150, $250, or even more.
If the sports service gets 500 people in its net, it is easy to calculate what they can realize. All they need do is deal half the customers one side of the game and the other half the other side. This guarantees 250 winners. Now the ante goes up. The next week the salesman talks with the winning clients and asks, "How did you like that big winner we gave you last week? I hope you got down big." If the price was $150 for the first game, the price may rise to $200 or $300 for the next release. The second week cuts the number of winners from 250 to 125 and continues until the final split. No matter what week you lose, you'll end up a victim, disillusioned and broke, while the service has extracted thousands of dollars in fees with their scams.
The Lay-Off Scam
The tout service offers you the so-called "can't lose" pick for $300, guaranteeing your money back if you lose. The service lays $165 ($150, plus $15 vig) on the other side, leaving him $135. If you win, the service loses $165 to the bookmaker and profits $135. If you lose, the service collects $150 profit from his bookmaker and returns your $300. This accomplishes two things for the scam artists. They have gained your confidence. They also will be back for more easy money. It doesn't really matter whether the service picks 50% or 60% winners; at $150 a pick (assuming 50% winners), the service will do very well.
Returning More Than You Paid
"Pay me $300 for the game and I'll pay you $450 if it loses." Have you seen this one in sports publications? Here's how it works. The service gets perhaps 100 responses. They give 50 people one side and 50 people the other side. At $300 a pop, they take in $30,000. But they don't keep it all. They continue the scam, week in and week out, until their customers run out of cash. In the scenario described here, the 50 losers will receive $450 each, a total of $22,500, and the sports service pockets $7500. (You will never get your money back from any service........trust me, they will have you betting more and paying more.)
Another version of the same scam has the service charging $50 a game and offering a pay back of $60 on losers. This scam can have you paying for net losers. Suppose you bought seven plays at $50 each. The service deals you three winners and four losers. They return you $240, leaving them a profit of $110 for one net loser. Seeing the check from the service for your losers can lead you to proclaim, "What an honest service!" You're right back the next week with $350 more. The service can't lose unless they come up with a 1-6 or 0-7 weekend. After a week or two, they think they have you and may suggest, "Just apply the $180 (for three losers) to your next week's fee of $350."
There are a number of other scams, but these provide you with a number of examples to consider.
1. Be skeptical when anyone offers you a sure thing. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Anyone who offers you a lock is insulting your intelligence.
2. If a service tells you they are great or hot, ask who monitors their selections. Make sure the monitoring service they cite is credible and not in collusion with them. Subscribe to a monitoring newsletter. Ask for credentials and valid testimonials. Have they entered any handicapping contests? What was their record? Be sure to evaluate their performance in terms of net winners or units, because this is the only true barometer. If they win the most "funny money" in a contest, it might only reflect the luckiest crapshooter in the competition.
3. Beware of the "infinite star" approach to rating selections. This is where the service rates their plays on too broad a spectrum (one to 20, for example). A good rating system should use a ratio of one to four. Two- or three-star games should make up the bulk of the plays. Under such a scheme, one would be a light play, two a regular play, three a strong play and four an exceptionally strong play. Be careful buying rated plays and be suspect if they induce you to load up on one play.
4. Check out any sports service before paying anything. If a service offers you a money back guarantee, get it spelled out in writing. Be sure they are a legitimate business. Do they have a business license? Obtain bank references. Ask if they are monitored. Are they incorporated? Who are the principals and what are their personal credentials and references? Above all, make sure there is no way for them to win if you lose. A money back guarantee is only as good as the integrity of the guarantor.
5. If a service should offer you a net winner program, make sure it's equitable. If they come up with net winners, pay them. If they deal you net losers, they should carry the losses forward. The net winner program is not good business for the service, nor totally good for the player. On a weekly basis, the service can hold back its plays if it is ahead (to guarantee a payday) or load the player up with plays near the end of the week (to bail out and make some money from the client). It's a bad deal for everyone involved.
6. Make sure the service you are buying from is not connected with several other services owned by the same principals. You could find yourself being bounced around following a losing streak by one of the services. There are several big operators who have extracted many thousands of dollars from clients in one season using such techniques. With certain types of clients, it is more profitable to sell losers, then use a "bail out" pitch from another of their services. Beware!
7. Be careful when giving your credit card number to any sports service. You might be better off using another form of payment. There have been instances where salesmen have intentionally billed credit cards long after a client has ceased doing business with a service. I know this is the actual policy of one service. Keep in mind that an otherwise honest service can be victimized by its own commissioned salesmen who engage in this practice.
What is a "Scamdicapper"
What's a "Scamdicapper"? It's a term that's used to refer to sports handicapping services that are not in business to serve their fellow sports bettors, but to serve themselves and scam their customers.
They'll claim outrageous results that at first seem to be "the sure thing" or "easy money". You'll be tempted to take their advice and dive in with a 1-900 phone call for a "100 star play-of-the-year", which has been 90% over the last 10 years. You'll make the call and spend your $50 or more and get a decent selection. It may or may not win, but you can be sure that they've got your phone number and they'll begin to call you with their free plays for a few days. They are relentless. (What they don't tell you is that they are 90% when the home team plays the week before in a snow storm and they are down by 5 points under a full moon and the away team has less than 14 points at half time and there have been less than two field goals in the first half......get where I'm going with this?)
Likely, their free picks are being handed out on both sides of a game to different customers. Let's say the Broncos and the Packers are playing and the Vikings and the Bears are playing. They'll give caller "A" the Broncos and the Vikings. They'll give caller "B" the Broncos and the Bears. They'll give caller "C" the Packers and the Vikings and they'll give caller "D" the Packers and the Bears. After the Broncos and the Vikings win, caller "A" is thrilled with the 2-0 performance. Callers "B" and "C" are indifferent and probably will get another call next time using the same formula. Caller "D" went 0-2 and the Scamdicapper won't even bother with them again. (This is the way ALL PAY SPORTS SERVICES WORK)
It may repeat again the next week and guess what...someone is going to get 4-0 picks and a few will get 3-1 picks. Maybe it's you. Finally, you'll talk to them to find out how affordable their service is. They'll tell you about all of their scouts and inside information and ask you how much you normally bet on a game. Next, they'll tell you how much more money you could make if you bet significantly more and bought their picks, which come in consistently at 70-80%. They'll price their "package" based on what they think you'll pay, since you've already told them how much you normally bet. You'll usually hear them tell you how you can't lose buying their service for $500 this month and you've got to wire them some money today because tonight is a "lock".
Did I forget to mention that after a couple of days with their service they'll tell you about your games that you bought, but also let you know about this "other guy" that they work with and "I shouldn't be doing this, but..." they'll give you a free pick or two for their premium service which is just a few hundred bucks a month more. Next thing you know, you're losing your bets and you've paid a small fortune for their "advice". (READ THIS AGAIN, THIS WILL ABSOLUTELY HAPPEN TO YOU.)
Don't bite. Be educated. There are scamdicappers everywhere and the web is littered with "free pick" sites as well as outrageously priced services.
Q: Do I Need a Handicapping Service
A: NO Remember, any and all game info is free, you just need to know where to get it!
If you're successful on your own and take the time to read through the game summaries, injury reports, power ratings from various services, and stay on top of weekly game developments, then you are already ahead of most pay services. Don't spend your money unless you want to throw it away. I recommend that if your honest results are putting money in your pocket and you are more than "lucky" because you do your homework diligently, then keep doing what you are doing. (Read this again, if you don't get it keep reading it until you do)
However, if you aren't looking at all the games, you might be missing an angle on a game that gives you a strong advantage. If you think watching SportsCenter every night makes you a knowledgeable handicapper, you're probably losing money. If you're just betting your "hunch" or a team that's "due" and disregarding statistics and facts about an upcoming game, you should in the very least consider a reputable service (NO SUCH THING) to supplement your picks or give you an edge on other games. But BE CAREFUL.
If you choose to use a service, you will not only lose but now you will lose to two people, the bookie and the sports service Remember that you get what you pay for and anybody can claim to be an expert. There are good "sophisticated" handicappers out there who are excellent at their hobby but they don't run web sites and give out free picks. They play games for themselves to make money. If for some reason you are having a hard time understanding what I am saying here then just PLEASE just ask at least one question .... Where can I see a documented record of your results? You will see that 99.9% of them cannot prove what they claim. ALL PRO SPORTS can prove it with ALL my picks since the beginning of this web site.
Why do dishonest scamdicappers charge for their selections? Because they do it for a living as well. Why are many of them so expensive? Because they spend an outrageous amount on marketing. And sometimes it can be expensive to close down shop and re-open with a new name to market to a new class of victims.
So what should you do? First, find a free service that you think you can trust. That means that they either post their results daily or are monitored by one of the services that keep handicappers honest. But be careful here too. There are "monitoring" services that - for an extra fee - will let the handicappers turn in their selections the next day. Of course, not all monitoring services are dishonest either.
Where's the 70% Winning Percentage? (WILL NEVER HAPPEN)
This is the biggest myth in all of sports handicapping. Someone who gets involved with sports betting may meet with moderate success - a slight profit. But they see these ads touting 75% winners every year or their "Big Ten Lock-of-the-Year" that can't miss. Let's take a look at realistic percentages so that you can take a closer look at what may or may not be real.
Let's say you have a sample of 100 games. In order to pick 70% winners, you'd go 70-30. A $100 bettor would have an outstanding return of $3700 on games with a -110 line. Is it realistic? Well, let's take a closer look.
It's widely held that about 50% of all games played will be decided against the spread by fluke. Disagree? How many games have you watched where your over bet fell just short because of a great catch at the wall on a sure home run? Or the comfortable 10-point favorite loses a 14-point lead late in the game because the second-string mop-up quarterback throws an ill-advised pick that is run back for a touchdown? Or the star guard for the favored hoops team goes down with a sprained ankle in the first quarter? All the handicapping in the world will never be a crystal ball and these situations just happen. Sometimes they end up helping you in your bet and sometimes they end up hurting you. It sure does seem like they hurt more often than they help!
So let's say that of the 100 games in our sample, 50 games are decided by fluke and you win half and lose half. That means that you are 25-25 after 50 games. Now what does it take to get to 70% total? IT TAKES ANOTHER 45 WINNERS OF THE REMAINING 50 GAMES. Are you kidding me? You would have to go 45-5 in the other games. Wow. Do you honestly think that Fast Eddie's Sports Locks can do that?(Just about IMPOSSIBLE without a stroke of unbelievable luck.)
Realistic Winning Percentage
Continuing with our example, what would it take to go 60%? It would still take a stiff 35-15 in the other 50 games. Tough, but possible. More realistic percentages for professional handicappers is 55-57% over a long sample, such as 100 games. A $100 bettor would earn $970 at a 57% record of 57-43 on games with a -110 line. (Bear in mind that you had to risk $11,000.00 to win your $970.00)
Now you can understand why confident handicappers that play with their own money have to lay bets of a nickel ($500), a dime ($1000), or more per game in order to make it worth their while over a football season. If they're playing an average of 15 college and pro football games per full week, they're likely only placing around 200 football plays per year. And they are very satisfied with 56%-58%.
What's the Bottom Line?
Well, it's all about buyer beware. Stay away from any service that uses a "STAR" rating system. There is no such thing as any game being a 5 STAR pick that's any better than a 1 STAR pick. As far as the bettor is concerned you have a 50 - 50 chance of winning any game on the day it's played. Think about this for a minute...if a so called 5 STAR game loses you lose $110.00 if it wins you win $100.00. The same holds true for a 1 STAR game. Some games may look better than others but there are ONLY 2 outcomes on a game...WIN or LOSE. I suppose you could get a PUSH and that would be better than a lose but for the most part you win or lose.
As we all know, there are such things as streaks - both hot and cold. It's quite possible to go 85% over three or four days or even have a 75% week. It's also possible to have a goose egg for a day followed by a 1-4 day. Few services offer a guarantee, but if they do get it in writing first - some like to claim if a week of selections fail to show a profit (including the vig) the next weeks picks are free. (This is where they get you, they tell you that they have a game that came from super reliable source but this particular game will cost money if you want it, or you can get a "regular" game for free.)
What's a good Service worth? (NOTHING)
This is an excellent question. Some are much more expensive than others. If it costs a lot more are you getting that much better information? The answer is a resounding NO. Documented professionals are all within a few percentage points of each other in the long run. Some are absolutely better than others on a consistent basis, but not always to the same significant difference in the price that is charged. Keep in mind that some services claim they have to charge more because they offer more, such as newsletters with analysis, in-depth statistics and power ratings to help assist you in your own handicapping. (Total Bullshit)
If you have the time and are absolutely serious about doing your own in-depth analysis and handicapping, you will see that in the end, you will be as successful as any pay service. (All reliable information can be obtained for free)
The fact is that most bettors don't have the time or won't take the time to adequately study the games to gain the edge. So then the question becomes, Is worth it to use a reputable and affordable handicapping service to supplement your own picks?" THE ANSWER IS A RESOUNDING NO
The bottom line is BE CAREFUL You don't want your name and number passed around the boiler rooms of the scamdicapper circles. If you join any service be prepared to get calls for the next 5 to 8 years. Some service like to claim that they will keep your membership anonymous - we'll never sell your email or phone number to anyone else.(They don't have too, they all work under one roof, the real bottom line is don't be an asshole and give your money to some other asshole who knows jack shit!!!)
My professional advice is to bet with a friend that way there is no "vig" or use a good online casino (Bodog.com) and make your bets there. If you want FREE advice check ALL PRO SPORTS every week.